Why Do We Believe in Winning Streaks? The Psychology of Luck

Ever had the day when nearly everything went right for you? You hit all the green lights, have money in your pocket and the correct answer on a test for which you didn’t study. The world seems to be smiling upon you, doesn’t it? That’s the power of luck or how we perceive it. Our brains are wired to see patterns where there may not be any, hence, the perception of winning streaks.

The Casino Fisherman: A Player’s Illusion

Nowhere is this belief stronger than with gambling. Ever played Online Casino and felt like “I’m on fire!” after a few wins? But really, each spin, roll, or shuffle is independent; it’s just that our minds love to trick us into thinking trends though.

Just take fishing as an example where sometimes you are reeling the fish in and feeling like the professional angler and sometimes nothing bites and you are wondering about it all. But the ocean doesn’t care, it’s just the work of randomness – the chances aren’t altered by the fact that you’ve gotten lucky.

Hot Hands and Gambler’s Fallacies

There’s also the phrase called the “hot hand” effect and it happens all the time in sports. A basketball player makes a series of shots back-to-back, and now everyone thinks he can’t miss. Research shows such streaks are typically just random fluctuations. We think a slot machine is “hot” or “due” for a hit, but in reality, every spin is equally likely.

And there’s the gambler’s fallacy. If a coin lands heads five times in a row, your perception might be that tails is “overdue.” But the coin doesn’t have memory. It’s still 50/50 each time. This is how casinos can get people to stay playing. Our brains look for patterns where there are none.

Lucky Charms and Superstitions

We don’t believe in winning streaks alone, we also believe in lucky socks. There are plenty who have this friend who used to win big after wearing a mismatched pair. He swore after that he had to wear them whenever he played. Does it work? No. But did he believe it worked? Yes.

One of the most ludicrous examples of this type of thinking took place back in 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino. The roulette wheel landed black 26 times consecutively. Gamblers continued placing their wagers on the color red believing it must happen. Millions were lost as people assumed the wheel had memory for the last spin. Too bad; it didn’t.

Why Do We Keep Falling for It?

But why do we believe there are streaks when the facts suggest otherwise? Simple reason is that our brain is wired to recognize patterns. When our ancestors were around, recognizing trends was advantageous. If good hunting came from certain patterns of the weather, recognizing the pattern was advantageous. But now, and most prominently in gambling, it misleads us.

Next time you think you are on a hot streak, ask yourself if you are really beating the odds or that your brain is just looking for a pattern. Regardless it is just a visit to the casino, the stock exchange, or a night with friends playing games with boards, understanding how luck works can save you from some very costly mistakes. But well, if sporting a lucky charm does the job and makes you feel good, it’s fine – just don’t bet the house on it!